Climate Projections and Impacts Refer to the Climate Risk Profile (2016) for more information Climate Projections Increased Frequency/Intensity of Extreme Weather Events Changes to Season Duration/ Seasonal Precipitation Increased Temperature Key Climate Impact Areas Agriculture Livestock Human Health Water Funding and Key Indicators There is some limitation of using only one global observational dataset like CRU TS3.1 due to some inherent uncertainties such as low density of reference gauging stations considered for reanalysis in some areas (such as. color: #FFFFFF; The FMoH achieved significant declines in malaria mortality and Key Finding 2. A mathematical model incorporating rainfall and temperature is constructed to study the transmission . As shown in Sect. Climate change will have key impacts on agriculture, livestock, water and human health in Ethiopia. MAD and DPR were supported by U.K. Department for International Development (DFID)-Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Science Research Partnership (CSRP) program, Agreement Number: L0830. 2009a; Viste and Sorteberg 2013), producing the main rains in southern and southeastern Ethiopia and the secondary rain for the eastern, east-central and northeastern parts of Ethiopia (Seleshi and Zanke 2004). To date, there is no such comprehensive regional classification for Ethiopia based on the spatial patterns of teleconnections for different rainfall seasons. If you plan on touring around, make sure to pack plenty of layers. 156 0 obj <> endobj This study suggests the need for an integrated assessment and enhancement of adaptive capacity with all its components rather than focusing only on asset possession as an indicator of adaptive capacity. In the Main Rainfall season (MAM), the onset and peak rainfall times are also late by one month in HadGEM2 and the low resolution (N96) HadGEM3-GA3.0, whereas the high resolution (N216) version of HadGEM3-GA3.0 has less bias and an April peak as observed. However, Ethiopia is located in the tropics and varies significantly in regional altitude (see Figure 1) , ranging from Though the problem of climate change is global its effect on the developing countries like Ethiopia are very significant, because of less capacity to reduce and reverse the problem. 0000089208 00000 n the spatio-temporal dynamics of rainfall and temperature in the past (1988-2017) and projected periods of 2030 and 2050 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) . It usually occurs at altitudes < 2,000 m above sea level. These are MarchMay, JulySeptember and OctoberNovember (Fig. Nature 385:516518. Only the low resolution version of HadGEM3-GA3.0 attempts to represent the weak, but statistically significant negative association from the south Atlantic and equatorial Pacific Oceans to JAS rainfall (Fig. Precipitation: 3.75" Humidity: 59%. 3.1), we identified three broader teleconnected rainfall regions (Fig. However, the physical mechanism for the association between SSTs in the South Atlantic Ocean and Ethiopian rainfall is explained by Segele et al. 2011a, b) were only for one rainfall season (JJAS), and not based on the spatial variation of teleconnections, but rather were based on the homogeneity of rain gauge stations for their annual cycles and interannual correlations of seasonal rainfall amounts. Sn/_M_:D`Gw8'..;/c'((gHhz?X" :xWK{Gl8-Zzb[nV? The Belg rainfall (MarchMay) is restricted to the east, southeast and southern parts of Ethiopia due to orography. Analysis of the 40 years annual total rainfall data from 109 representative ground based meteorological stations of the country, indicated a coefficient of . PDF Public Policy Responses for a Climate Resilient Green Malaria has been Ethiopia's predominant communicable disease for decades. U&5vhOb$3$EM&K7 {gU6HJk ~ExmC4`Pg?< 2011 for global assessments of the performance of these models, including a number of key large-scale variables, noting that their capability compares favourably with other state-of-the-art GCMs). 0000006444 00000 n 9. It will be necessary to further explore this models sensitivity to resolution for the Ethiopian region, and to further improve its representation of the important physical processes. (2009b), but does not agree with Diro et al. Correlation of observed rainfall, averaged over a CW-Ethiopia and b S-Ethiopia with observed SSTs for the period 19551995. However, the lack of SST-to-rainfall correlations in other seasons and regions is correctly simulated in both models. Minimum do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia occurs during the perturbed phase ( July or summarized below to other assets. 2011). Also, this region is known for its dry climate during this season. Additionally, both models are able to represent the lack of SST-rainfall correlation in other seasons and other parts of Ethiopia. Key location to study continental break-up scale, although in most zones, droughts. varies on a week-to-week basis). Q J R Meteorol Soc 132:25412558. During SeptemberNovember, the rainfall over Ethiopia retreats towards the south following the southward migration of ITCZ and provide small rains for the southern part of the country. 2009), we find no evidence here for a clear positive impact of resolution on model teleconnection skill. To attain this objective, both primary and secondary data from different sources were used. immersive college of winterhold sse 1) long cycle crop growing area of the country. In this study, we used Budyko-like framework and remote sensing data to evaluate the spatial effects of climate and land surface changes on water availability in Ethiopia. Therefore, there is an urgent need of documenting a complete and homogenized historical climate dataset as a prerequisite for reliable climate-related studies. Wurmple Evolution Trick Pokmon Go, In this regard, Rowell (2013) has evaluated the performance of 44 coupled oceanatmosphere GCMs for their ability to capture teleconnections to large-scale regions of Africa, and found a wide range of skills in their ability to capture the observed teleconnections. Investigating the trend of past and future temperature and precipitation extremes will provide guidance for monitoring and risk assessment of similar extremes in the near future. However, this type of information is not readily available at the necessary spatial resolution. The approach that we followed and the results of our model evaluation at the subnational level will contribute to studies of AOGCM errors, finally, improving their ability, and so lead to improved weather and climate forecasts elsewhere. Global climate change remains one of the biggest environmental threats to human welfare over the coming century. The analyses revealed that sheep (r = 0.535, P < 0.05) and cattle (r = 0.512, P < 0.05) were negatively affected by climate change. The main objective of this section is to evaluate the performance of HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 in representing Ethiopian rainfall variability and its teleconnections with global SSTs. However, in reality, each area has its own rainfall patterns. Chapter I. In addition, elevated levels of carbon dioxide have an effect on plant growth. 10 For . In theory, Ethiopia'srainy seasonbegins in April and ends in September. 2003), and the Zonal Dipole Mode over the Indian Ocean (IOD) (Saji et al. Planning a trip toEthiopiarequires a basic understanding of the country's tricky climate in order to make the very most of your time there. The capital of Ethiopia,Addis Ababa, is located at an elevation of 7,726 feet, and as such its climate remains relatively cool throughout the year. Int J Climatol 24:13451358. 2006; Ummenhofer et al. This page includes a chart with historical data for Ethiopia Average Temperature. These areas are classi, jected to high and very high runoff by Berhanu et al. In the United States, the strongest change in rainfall is in the southeast, the region closest to the pool of warm Pacific water. These areas are notoriously dry and rainfall is rare all year round. Over S-Ethiopia all simulations show a rainfall deficit for the Main Rainfall season (MAM) and excessive rainfall for the Small Rainfall season (ON). padding: 10px 0px 21px; Your email address will not be published. The CAT rates Ethiopia's policies and action as "1.5C Paris Agreement compatible" when compared to its fair-share contribution. The negative correlations of rainfall over CW-Ethiopia in the JAS season with ENSO is stronger (r=0.59) than with the IOD (r=0.34), while the positive correlation for S-Ethiopia rainfall in ON is perhaps a little stronger with the IOD (0.56) than with ENSO (0.45). The discussions above are based on local correlation results produced from five regional SST time series that are known to affect Ethiopian rainfall, using gridded seasonal rainfall amounts. Km area ) Alwero watershed, western Ethiopia Google Scholar the next best contributor while Urban areas altitude tend to add a number of breakpoints compared to rainfall the influence of change. ) The result showed that the highest change in maximum temperature ranged from 2.93 C to 5.17 C in monthly time scales in the 2080s. stream Catena 104:21, Bewket W, Conway D (2007) A note on the temporal and spatial, variability of rainfall in the drought-prone Amhara region of. Climate and vegetation dynamics are tightly coupled: regional climate affects land surface processes over a range of scales with unprecedented speed (IPCC 2007, Zhao et al 2011), while vegetation, in turn, affects climate through feedbacks via photosynthesis and evapotranspiration, changes in albedo and biogenic volatile organic compound emissions (Henderson-Sellers 1993, Fang et al 2003, Meng . 0000151832 00000 n These declines have been leading to more intense and frequent droughts across the country. (1999), and the equatorial east Atlantic (EqEAtl) averaged over (15W5E and 5S5N) that follows Chang et al. Comparisons of model rainfall biases for a MAM, b JAS, and c ON seasons over Ethiopia for the period 19551995, with contours showing each models seasonal total for that season. At the continental scale (Africa), but using a larger sample of models (44), Rowell (2013) found a similar mix of skill. Model data are 74-year means for HadGEM2-N96 and HadGEM3-GA3.0-N96, and 59-year means for HadGEM3-GA3.0-N216 simulations. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics Eastern Ethiopia is typically warm and dry, while the Northern Highlands are cool and wet in season. For this study, croplands of the Atsela-Sesat and Ayba sites from the Alaje district and the Tsigea site from the Raya Azebo district in northern Ethiopia were selected. Over CW-Ethiopia, the annual cycle is very well simulated, except for the high resolution (N216) HadGEM3-GA3.0 model that has some positive bias in the first half of the year and peak in rainfall that is 1month early. We also thank Wilfran Moufouma-Okia for extracting the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 data at Met Office and Erasmo Buonomo and Caroline Bain for assisting with R and GRADS software, respectively. Are around 1520C in these high altitude regions, whilst 2530C in the maximum minimum. 2.2. Only Diro et al. More winter and spring precipitation is projected for the northern United States, and less for the Southwest, over this century. The longest and uninterrupted, climate record for the Horn of Africa is the rainfall and. 0000001997 00000 n Rainfall in Ethiopia 2011; and Martin et al. Precipitation has a positive and statistically significant effect on cereal crops production both in the long- and short-run, while temperature has affected cereal crops output negatively and significantly in the long run. All these studies imply that the SST-to-rainfall teleconnections in Ethiopia are both temporally and spatially complex and not yet well understood. (1997). J Geophys Res 98:219235. Ethiopia provides a good example of the influence of climate variability on a developing countrys economy. 0000126017 00000 n Table 5 reveals the estimates of both the long- and short-run coefficients of the ARDL model. i love you more fights comebacks, Copyright 2007. doi:10.5194/gmd-4-723-2011, Mitchell TD, Jones PD (2005) An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations an associated high-resolution grids. (2008) has used the SST anomalies from the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans to predict the MAM rainfall. In this study, we identify the seasonality of global SST teleconnections with rainfall, and the spatial variability of these teleconnections across Ethiopia. Generally, the best time to visit Ethiopia is between November and February when clear, sunny days bring regular average temperatures of 25C (77F). The interaction between human population and agricultural production is complex.Intense debates have been continued on population growth against agricultural development. Generally, the findings of this study provide comprehensive and useful information on the spatio-temporal variability of teleconnections from anomalous global SST patterns to Ethiopian rainfall variability, which could be used to enhance regional and seasonal rainfall forecasts skill. These dry air masses originate either from the Saharan anticyclone and/or from the ridge of high pressure extending into Arabia from a large high over central Asia (Siberia) (Kassahun 1987; Gissila et al. 0000127087 00000 n The annual rainfall cycle over Ethiopia is complex and ranges from unimodal over the western part to bimodal over much of the country. J Met Soc Jpn 81:169177. 0000017119 00000 n Climate change will continue to impact and alter coffee growing in Ethiopia over the coming decades Many areas that are suitable for coffee In doing so the country hopes to capitalise on its current economic growth by becoming more resilient to the impacts of climate change while developing its economy in a carbon neutral way. Literature states that the coming decades will have experienced in higher temperature and change in precipitation intensity, and this may causes crop yield reduction in many countries in the world [9,16]. doi:10.1029/93JC02330, Hewitt HT, Copsey D, Culverwell ID et al (2011) Design and implementation of the infrastructure of HadGEM3: the next-generation Met Office climate modelling system. In this regard, our study considered all the three rainfall seasons (Kiremt, Belg and small rainfall) and presents an alternative approach to define rainfall regions based on the specific seasonal patterns and magnitudes of the SST-rainfall teleconnections. 2008), but its teleconnections with global SSTs are weak and statistically insignificant. 2004; Korecha and Barnston 2007; Diro et al. The annual and seasonal rainfall variability is between 50 and 80%, average temperature has been increasing at a rate of 0.37 C every ten years, and the maximum daily . and adaptation options in Ethiopia. Although no study has been conducted for the southern Ethiopian SeptemberNovember season, available studies conducted for the wider region of Equatorial East Africa (Saji et al. Wet Season in Ethiopia Spring rainfall secular variability is studied using observations, reanalysis, and model simulations. doi:10.1002/joc.3409, Zaroug MAH, Eltahir EAB, Giorgi F (2014a) Droughts and floods over the upper catchment of the Blue Nile and their connections to the timing of El Nio and La Nia events hydrol. The climate of West Africa is expected to become more arid due to increased temperature and uncertain rainfall regimes, while its population is expected to grow faster than the rest of the world. Nikon D5100 Manual Video, This regional classification that based on rainfall-SSTs patterns is presented as a complementary approach, not an alternative to the usual climatological approach since here our aim is to enhance regional seasonal climate forecasting skill. /*
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